Our research under this stream focuses on...

Forecasting:  techniques for countries with limited data for forecasting macro-fiscal variables, and preparing the pre-budget documentation.  Looking at how macro-fiscal forecasts should be integrated into the budget process, and how these forecasts can be tested and evaluated.  Research also focuses on how countries go about the process of generating the forecasts, which organisations tend to be involved, and what political economy factors are involved in the forecasting process and how to limited their impact.

Risk Analysis: looking at the risk analysis techniques which can be used in countries, how risks should be reported on and analysed, particularly in low data environments.  Research also focuses on, how countries can plan out risk monitoring, how risk can become part of the budget process and how countries can develop mitigation strategies and analysis tools for risks; as well as who should be involved in the risk monitoring process.

Policy: looking at how countries develop macro-fiscal policy, which policies are most suitable for different types of countries, successes and failures in implementing policies, and the role of different stakeholders in policy development and implementation.  This stream also looks at the tools for analysing policy impacts: across macroeconomic, fiscal and social impacts that can be used in post-conflict countries; as well as the considerations and stages that should be in the policy making process.

RECENT WORK

Technical Note on Product Space

Date: 31/03/2017 

This note provides a background to the basic calculations in the Product Space technique.  Reviewing calculations for Distance, Sophistication and Proximity of products.  Read it here.

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MACRO FISCAL POLICY & FORECASTING